FedEx Sees Sign of a TurnaroundCNBC
Package delivery giant and U.S. economic bellwether FedEx is seeing signs for a potential turnaround in the second half as production seemed to be picking up again, German magazine WirtschaftsWoche reported.
Michael Ducker, in charge of FedEx's international business, told WirtschaftsWoche in an interview to be published on Monday that the downturn was easing and its ternationally transported volumes had not fallen further compared with the previous quarter.
"Production seems to be picking up again worldwide," he was quoted as saying.
He added that FedEx was aiming to save about $1 billion in its current financial year by, for example, taking out high fuel consuming planes, and by cutting working hours and maintenance costs.
FedEx was not planning on cancelling any of its plane orders, Ducker told the magazine.
Like its main rival, United Parcel Services , Memphis, Tennessee-based FedEx is considered a bellwether of U.S. economic activity.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Service Industries Probably Contracted: U.S. Economy Preview
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Turning A Corner?
Friday, July 3, 2009
Jim presents Comparing Fixed Annuities & Certificates of Deposit posted at Blueprint for Financial Prosperity.
Wren Caulfield presents Adventures in Cake, Installment One posted at True Adventures in Money Hacking, saying, "Invest in yourself by starting a home-based business and use your talents. Here's how I'm doing it."
Ricky Dee presents Mutual Fund Investing posted at Stock Market College - Investment Advice & Stock Tips.
Rick presents Retirement Investing posted at Stock Market College - Investment Advice & Stock Tips.
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Freddy presents Bullish Stock According To Technical Analysis On May 17, 2009 posted at Protege Analytics.
Britannica Blog presents Recession Over? (Harley-Davidson: +140%; Winnebago: +170%) posted at Britannica Blog, saying, "If the stock prices of companies like Harley-Davidson and Winnebago selling luxury, discretionary items like $35,000 motorcycles and $140,000 RVs are rebounding by +100% over a two-month period, at 4-5 times the increase in the S&P500 Index, does that suggest that the recession must be over?"
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Michael Haltman presents Does CNBC Know What A Bid and Ask Are? posted at The Political and Financial Markets Commentator, saying, "This hopefully makes some sense, but the point is that investors need to understand what is happening and the way that markets work, because in many instances the "experts" on television do not and are not."
Steve Patterson presents Goldman Sachs Group (GS) - Increased Profit Estimates posted at FastSwings, saying, "Buying Goldman now and holding until their earnings announcement looks like a winning strategy."
Dan at Everydayfinance presents Sucker's Rally: For 34% since March, Call Me a Sucker! posted at Everyday Finance, saying, "With esteemed economists referring to current investors as 'suckers' in a Sucker's Rally the question is - for 34% since March, are you willing to be called sucker?"
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Diego Cervantes presents The Amero Currency: Myths, Facts and 25 Great Resources for Further Research posted at Bankling.
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Freddy presents High Dividend Yield Stock For Income Investors (May 27, 2009) posted at Protege Analytics.
Wealth-Ed presents Can American Banks Bounce Back posted at Wealth Education - Investment Ideas Personal Financial Advice.
Jared presents General Growth Continues Restructuring Efforts posted at Wealth Education - Investment Ideas Personal Financial Advice.
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Darwin presents The Riskiest ETFs on Earth - 3X Sector ETF Short/Long posted at Darwin's Finance, saying, "With investors are enamored by weekly returns in excess of 20%, this article demonstrates the destructive and volatile nature over time of the Riskiest ETFs on Earth - 3X sector ETFs."
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Brian McKay presents CD Rates: Your Actual Rate of Return on a CD Investment These Days posted at MonitorBankRates.com, saying, "CD Rates: Finding decent CD rates is challenging these days, when you factor in the rate of inflation the return isn’t as bad as it seems"
Britannica Blog presents How an Inflation Threat Could Make the 1970s Look Like Happy Days posted at Britannica Blog, saying, "When the U.S. financial system seemed on the brink of collapse last fall, Washington undertook the largest monetary rescue in history. The $750 billion allocated to shore up failing banks and AIG was only the beginning. The Federal Reserve has made available hundreds of billions more in assorted “lending facilities.” Many details, including the exact cost, have been kept secret. Some educated guesses put the number at $2 trillion."
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Britannica Blog presents NY Times: "Buy American" Is a Terrible Idea posted at Britannica Blog, saying, "“It’s not surprising that Democrats in Congress could not resist adding a “Buy American” provision to the fiscal stimulus bill earlier this year. It might seem sensible (or at least politically useful) to ensure that taxpayer dollars would be used exclusively to support American jobs."
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Mike presents Beware of the Double Dip posted at Great Depression Version 2: Bear Market and Economic Depression, saying, "The stock market may be up, but that does not mean the end of the recession is necessarily near."
Michael Cohen presents Don't Bet On A Soft Landing Into The New Normal posted at Debt, Economics, Boom and Bust, saying, "There are those predicting a new normal of 1-2% economic growth. We will likely not ease our way into that sort of situation."
Tom Escent presents Introduction to Nerds on Wall Street posted at Quantitative Finance, saying, "Think of this book as sort of a Hitchhiker’s Guide to Wired Markets. There are no robots parking cars for six million years, but there are robots trading millions of shares in six milliseconds, so maybe that’s close enough."
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Tushar Mathur presents Can't Control the Markets? Try controlling the Costs posted at Everything Finance, saying, "As 2008 proved, the financial markets are prone to unpredictable periods of turbulence. That can make investing feel a bit like a roller-coaster ride. The disappointing results that many mutual funds posted in 2008 and at the outset of 2009 may have left you feeling concerned over your financial future. You're not alone."
ChristianPF presents Should you convert your IRA to a Roth in 2010? posted at Money in the Bible | Christian Personal Finance Blog, saying, "This article discusses the advantages of a Roth conversion in 2009 and in 2010..."
Nickel presents Index Mutual Funds vs. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) posted at fivecentnickel.com.
Stephen todd presents Stock Market Trading - Investment Portfolio And Trading Strategy posted at Buy Stocks.
ChristianPF presents Using a Roth IRA as an emergency fund? posted at Money in the Bible | Christian Personal Finance Blog, saying, "Is it a good idea to use your Roth IRA as an emergency fund? The answer may surprise you..."
Thursday, July 2, 2009
The stock market can create and destroy wealth like no other. People can make more money in the stock market in one month, than the amount they would have made in years of working. Minor day to day movements in the stock market create and destroy billions, if not trillions, of dollars of wealth in the world everyday. Where else would you ever see that being done? Just as the stock market can create money for us to live off of for retirement, pay for a new house, college tuition for our kids, or a vacation, the market can also destroy that money. And that is what has happened this past year. In fact, the market has destroyed so much money, that only the market can bring it back. It would take this generation of people years and years to rebuild that wealth by just working in jobs alone. And it is for that reason alone, that more than ever in history, we are so desperate for a rally. So we can create billions of dollars a day, instead of losing the billions of dollars a day we have become accustom to as of late. We got a rally, a historic one, but the problem was, it came from no where and not enough people were in the market at the time to take advantage of it. Yes, it is true that in history, after such a huge market rally, we typically see a correction. But I want to remind people, that there is no law that says history has to repeat itself. Just because the correction happened before, does not mean it is going to happen again. More importantly, this rally has something that no rally has had before. It was a rally that people desperately needed, in order to retire and to witness their dreams again. But it is a rally that most people missed. Now, people are fearful of missing the next leg up, and there will be one. This economy has show signs of significant improvement and the market has not priced it all in yet. And the only way we will get back to our living standards before this recession will be through the stock market creating wealth again.
The analysts on wall street are forgetting the enormous power that fear has in controlling the market. Fear of the financial collapse drove this market to the ground. But now the fear in the market is a different fear. It is a fear that you will miss the next rally, and you will not be able to attain back the wealth you had prior to this recession in your life time. And it is that fear that will prevent any correction from happening. At any sign of a small downturn, buyers will swoop in, seeing this as their opportunity to get back into the market for the next leg up. In my opinion, this is the strongest factor that will prevent a significant correction. It is a fear that we have not witnessed before, fear of missing out on market gains, not of the market going lower.
Another thing that is annoying me is that every analyst I hear says they think that the market is going to have a correction, but then go up again. In case they were sleeping during their economics 101 class, I think they forgot that is not how prices work. You cannot believe that prices will fall a little tomorrow, and then the day after they will go up a lot. If that is the case, that prices today will automatically adjust to the farthest outcome, in this case the day after tomorrow's market gain. You can't say that the market is going to correct itself in July, but then go up again in August. Prices will just adjust automatically to the expected gain in August right away, bypassing any July correction. And that is what most analyst have been saying, correction before we go higher again. That does not make economic sense. At all. If it is KNOWN to go up in August, why would it bother going down in July... If you think a significant correction is going to happen, you can't think the next day there is going to be a sudden upward trend.
Unemployment hit 9.5% today, better than the expected 9.6%. I don't know why everyone suddenly panicked about it, it is priced in and assumed by all that the unemployment rate is going to go north of 10%... so why is 9.5% such a surprise. Most CEOs have said that business has bottomed out, and as their business bottoms out, they will slow down layoffs. For the 90% of people who still have their job, they are living in fear of getting laid off. Because of that fear they are not spending any money and really clamping down the economy. But as that fear goes away, as the unemployment rate growth begins to slow down, that fear will go away and spending will bring this economy back. We used to have the unemployment rate jump by .5 percent, but now its only .1. Obviously, it can be argued that the labor market is in more peril that a simple .1% gain in unemployment. But the important thing is that a .1% gain doesn't seem as scary as some of those other gains we have had. And that matters a lot because the 90% of employed people need to stop being fearful and need to get out and spend because odds are, your job is safe. And once that spending goes up we will see the recovery we all want.
The market has had a month to correct itself and its only gone down 5%. Given that we don't get any fundamental change, the market is not going get down much lower. We had a huge downturn today and I heard some analyst on CNBC bragging about how he called the downturn for a month. Well I am glad after a month of saying it, he finally got his downturn. That is like telling someone for a 100 years that one day they are going to die... eventually you will be correct but that doesn't make it a good prediction.